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Handicapping the Senate

The presidential campaign is not the only political event sure to fill the airwaves next year. With 34 Senate seats, all 435 House districts, and 11 Governor's offices being contested, politics will again dominate both national and local news coverage. As we head toward 2008, it is a good time to begin giving some thought to candidates with names other than Hillary, Obama, Rudy, or Thompson – such as those running for the Senate.

It is virtually assured that the Democrats will increase their 51-49 majority in the 100-member chamber. Having to defend 22 of the 34 in-cycle seats, the arithmetic clearly penalizes the GOP. Already in half of the Republican-held states, the Democrats have credible challengers; Republicans have nary a one in the dozen seats under Democratic control.

The Rs' most vulnerable seat appears to be in Colorado, where retiring two-term incumbent Wayne Allard is honoring his promise to serve no more than 12 years. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall (Boulder) will face former Rep. Bob Schaffer (Ft. Collins) in a place where votes are trending away from the GOP. The early betting gives the Ds a slight, but distinct advantage. 80-year old Sen. John Warner (R-VA) is widely believed to be following Allard into retirement. Should this happen, Rep. Tom Davis (R-Fairfax) is waiting in the wings. If, however, former Governor Mark Warner runs – as most observers believe he will – the Democrats will have the edge in yet one more conversion opportunities.

Among Republican incumbents seeking re-election, New Hampshire's John Sununu appears to be in the worst shape. No less than three public polls already show the Senator trailing former Governor Jeanne Shaheen – the person he beat six years ago – by more than 20 points. Shaheen has not announced her candidacy, but Democratic insiders peg her chances of running at 70%. Comedian Al Franken, of Saturday Night Live fame, has already raised over $3 million for his Senate challenge to Minnesota Republican incumbent Norm Coleman. Should Franken win the primary, he will give Coleman all that he can handle, but the early edge goes to the Republican. In Maine two-term Sen. Susan Collins is likewise facing a difficult contest against five-term Rep. Tom Allen (D-Portland); however, early polling shows the GOP incumbent maintaining a comfortable 20 point advantage.

Two other potential Republican problem areas are Kentucky and Nebraska. In the Bluegrass State, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will face Attorney General Greg Stumbo, after likely dispensing with a GOP primary opponent -- who will be more than a token challenge. In the Cornhusker State, Sen. Chuck Hagel already has two Republican primary foes – the sitting Attorney General and a former Congressman and Mayor of Omaha. If he wins re-nomination, he may have to face former Senator and presidential candidate Bob Kerrey, who is toying with the idea of making a political comeback. If Kerrey pulls the trigger, this normally safe red state turns into a toss-up.

Considering all of the activity from Democratic challengers versus none from their Republican counterparts, it is reasonable to believe that the Ds will gain anywhere from two to as many as five seats next year. This could potentially hike their majority count to a 21st Century high of 56-44.